Large language models use auxiliary conditioning to incorporate additional information into time-series forecasts. However, auxiliary conditioning does not consistently improve accuracy and can increase forecasting error when its influence is poorly matched to the observed temporal context.

We propose Forecast-Aware Residual Refinement (FARR), which learns to correct forecasts using endpoint evidence. FARR obtains a valid forecast under the standard condition and a null forecast under a predefined null condition.

Their difference reveals how conditioning changes the prediction. A shared residual refiner combines this endpoint evidence with historical features to estimate the remaining error of the valid forecast.

Horizon-wise gating then controls the contribution of the predicted residual to the final output. Experiments on four long-horizon forecasting benchmarks show that FARR achieves the best dataset-average MSE and MAE among the compared methods.

Code will be released at https://github.com/blossomrichzyy-star/farr-forecast-aware-residual-refinement.